Your Guide To The 2019 NCAA Men’s Tournament: South regionCat:未分類
Top seed outlook: Can No. 1 Virginia exorcise the past year’s allies now that the group is currently at full strength? Our version thinks so. The Cavaliers have a 49 percent probability of cracking the Final Four and a 31 percent likelihood of accomplishing what would be the program’s first national title game.
Together with De’Andre Hunter, that wasn’t on the court this past year through UVA’s historical loss to No. 16 Maryland Baltimore County, the Cavaliers were dominant on both ends — the only team ranking in the top five in Pomeroy’s adjusted offense and protection metrics. Yet again, Tony Bennett’s package line defense is suffocating most every offensive chance and successfully turning games into rock fights. But this year’s team is even better on the offensive end and ought to breeze to the Elite Eight, where it might meet Tennessee. Thanks to Grant Williams along with the superbly appointed Admiral Schofield, the No. 2 Volunteers are playing their very best basketball in program history. We give them a 22 percent likelihood of reaching the Final Four.
Sneaky Final Four select: No. 6 Villanova. Is it”sneaky” to pick the team that’s won just two of the previous three national titles? Maybe not. But this hasn’t been the exact same group that coach Jay Wright advised to those championships. After dropping a ton of its best players from last year’s title-winning group, the Wildcats had an up-and-down year and lost five of their final eight regular-season Big East games. But they also got hot over the past week, capping off a year where they still won the Big East regular-season and conference-tournament titles — and had among the 20 best offenses in the nation according to KenPom (powered by an absurd amount of 3-pointers). Our power ratings believe that they’re the fourth-best team in the South despite being the No. 6 seed, and they have a 5 percent chance of earning it back into the Final Four for a third time in four seasons.
Don’t wager on: No. 4 Kansas State. Coach Bruce Weber’s Wildcats nearly made the Final Four final season, however they may find it tougher this time around. K-State has an elite defense (it ranks fourth in the country based on Pomeroy’s evaluations ), but its offense is prone to battles — and may be down its second-leading scorer, forward Dean Wade, who missed the team’s Big 12 tournament loss to Iowa State with a foot injury. A brutal draw that provides the Wildcats tough No. 13 seed UC Irvine in the first round, then places them opposite the Wisconsin-Oregon winner in Round two, could limit their potential to progress deep into a second consecutive tournament.
Cinderella watch: No. 12 Oregon. In accordance with our model, the Ducks have the very best Sweet 16 chances (24 percent) of any double-digit seed at the tournament, more than twice that of some other offender. Oregon struggled to string together wins for most of the regular season, and its chances appeared sunk following 7-foot-2 phenom Bol Bol was lost for the season with a foot injury in January. However, the Ducks have rallied to win eight straight games going into the championship, including a convincing victory in Saturday’s Pac-12 championship. Oregon fits a similar mould as K-State — excellent defense using a defendant crime — but that is telling, since the Ducks are a 12-seed and the Wildcats are a No. 4. If they meet in the Round of 32, we provide Oregon a 47 percent chance at the upset.
Player to watch: Grant Williams, Tennessee
The junior has come a very long way from being”just a fat boy with some ability.” Williams, the de facto leader of Rick Barnes’s Volunteers, has bullied the SEC within the previous two seasons, collecting two consecutive conference player of the year honors.
The Vols might only feature the very best offense of Barnes’s coaching career — and we are talking about a man who coached Kevin Durant! A lot of that offensive potency could be traced to Williams, the team’s top scorer and rebounder, that ranks in the 97th percentile in scoring efficiency, based on information courtesy of Synergy Sports.
Williams owns an old-man game you might find at a regional YMCA, a back-to-the-basket, footwork-proficient offensive attack that manifests mostly in post-ups, where he positions in the 98th percentile in scoring efficacy and shoots an adjusted field-goal percentage of 56.1. He can find the Volunteers buckets in the waning moments of games, also, as he ranks in the 96th percentile in isolation scoring efficiency.
Likeliest first-round upsets: No. 9 Oklahoma over No. 8 Ole Miss (53 percent); No. 12 Oregon over No. 5 Wisconsin (45 percent); No. 10 Iowa over No. 7 Cincinnati (34 percent)
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