Your Guide To The 2019 NCAA Men’s Tournament: South regionCat:未分類
Top seed outlook: Could No. 1 Virginia exorcise the past year’s demons now that the team is currently at full strength? Our model believes so. The Cavaliers have a 49 percent likelihood of cracking the Final Four and a 31 percent probability of reaching what would be the program’s first national title match.
With De’Andre Hunter, that wasn’t on the court this past year during UVA’s historic loss to No. 16 Maryland Baltimore County, the Cavaliers have been dominant on both ends — the sole team standing in the top five at Pomeroy’s adjusted offense and defense metrics. Once again, Tony Bennett’s package line defense is suffocating most every offensive chance and successfully turning games into stone fights. But this year’s team is better on the offensive end and should breeze to the Elite Eight, where it might meet Tennessee. Due to Grant Williams and the wonderfully named Admiral Schofield, the No. 2 Volunteers are enjoying their very best basketball in program history. We provide them a 22 percent probability of reaching the Final Four.
Sneaky Final Four select: No. 6 Villanova. Can it be”sneaky” to select the team that’s won two of the previous three national titles? Not. But this has not been the same group that coach Jay Wright guided to those championships. After dropping a ton of its best players from last year’s title-winning group, the Wildcats had an up-and-down season and dropped five of the final eight regular-season Big East games. However they also got hot over the past week, capping a season where they won the Big East regular-season and conference-tournament names — and had one of the 20 greatest offenses in the country based on KenPom (powered by an absurd amount of 3-pointers). Our power ratings think they’re the fourth-best team at the South despite being the No. 6 seed, and they have a 5 percent chance of earning it back to the Final Four for a third time in four seasons.
Don’t wager : No. 4 Kansas State. Coach Bruce Weber’s Wildcats almost produced the Final Four final season, however they may find it tougher this time around. K-State comes with an elite defense (it ranks fourth in the country according to Pomeroy’s evaluations ), but its crime is prone to battles — and may be down its second-leading scorer, forward Dean Wade, who missed the team’s Big 12 tournament loss to Iowa State with a foot injury. A barbarous draw that provides the Wildcats tough No. 13 seed UC Irvine in the first round, then places them opposite the Wisconsin-Oregon winner at Round 2, could limit their capability to advance deep into another successive tournament.
Cinderella see: No. 12 Oregon. According to our model, the Ducks have the best Sweet 16 chances (24 percent) of any double-digit seed at the championship, over twice that of some other candidate. Oregon struggled to string together wins for most of the regular season, and its odds seemed sunk after 7-foot-2 phenom Bol Bol was lost for the season with a foot injury in January. But the Ducks have rallied to win eight consecutive games heading into the championship, such as a convincing victory in Saturday’s Pac-12 championship. Oregon matches a similar mould as K-State — great defense using a defendant offense — but that’s telling, since the Ducks are a 12-seed and the Wildcats are a No. 4. If they fulfill in the Round of 32, we provide Oregon a 47 percent chance at the upset.
Player to watch: Grant Williams, Tennessee
The junior has come a very long way from being”a fat boy with some ability.” Williams, the de facto leader of Rick Barnes’s Volunteers, has bullied the SEC over the past two seasons, collecting two consecutive conference player of the year honors.
The Vols might just feature the best offense of Barnes’s coaching career — and we are talking about a guy who coached Kevin Durant! A lot of the offensive potency could be traced to Williams, the team’s leading scorer and rebounder, that ranks in the 97th percentile in scoring efficacy, based on information courtesy of Synergy Sports.
Williams possesses an old-man game you might find in a regional YMCA, a back-to-the-basket, footwork-proficient offensive assault that manifests mostly in post-ups, where he positions in the 98th percentile in scoring efficiency and shoots a adjusted field-goal percentage of 56.1. He can get the Volunteers buckets from the waning moments of matches, too, as he ranks in the 96th percentile in isolation scoring efficacy.
Likeliest first-round upsets: No. 9 Oklahoma over No. 8 Ole Miss (53 percent); No. 12 Oregon over No. 5 Wisconsin (45 percent); No. 10 Iowa over No. 7 Cincinnati (34 percent)
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