What is the key to successful sports betting?Cat:未分類
That’s the chart of William Hill’s yearly earnings and profits for the last four decades. If I were incompetent at using Google to retrieve historical results I’d have gone back further, and you would have noticed the consistency goes far beyond the last four years. They constantly make money. They’re a money-making machine.
They are a bookmaker. You know how”the house always wins”? Well that is exactly what this chart is showing you.
Those of you who haven’t moved on in disgust at the bait-and-switch response you feel you’re reading are likely asking something such as”ha bloody ha Groves…you know that’s not exactly what the question means. This means”how do I win consistently in sports gambling?”
I do understand that, yes. And is a point . The point is that if the bookmakers consistently win, which essentially they do, all you have to do to win is do exactly what the bookmakers are doing.
Alright, so now you’re maybe thinking”that is all very well smartarse, but I am not exactly planning to go out and start a chain of betting shops during the upcoming several decades and gradually develop a profitable business now am I?” (ah I see! You would like to always win, but you don’t wish to actually have to do any job to make it take place? Gotcha).
That is missing the point however. You do not have to open a chain of betting shops, luckily. You have to recognize the underlying reasons why the bookie wins, and replicate those.
Reason number one that the bookie wins: He does his homework. He uses information that empowers him to gauge, with better accuracy than the people he’s gambling with, what the true odds of any particular outcome are. He’s all the information he can find, and he’s computer models to analyse that information.
All this you can do yourself. You simply need to be prepared to put that campaign in. It is not easy to collect this much information, and construct these types of versions, but it’s possible. It has been done by me. It can be done.
Reason number two that the bookie wins: He”charges” individuals to wager. The odds he offers don’t add up to an implied probability of 100%, the remainder being potential profit for its bookie (known as the”vig” in the US). Depending on the event he might be charging a couple of percentage points (so on average he will make $2 for every $100 bet) to a couple of hundred percentage points (so on average he’ll make $200 for every $100 bet). It depends on his certainty around his quote, how dodgy he is, how idiotic he thinks his punters are, just how much competition he has, and so on.
You can sort of do this yourself, but it’s not quite so easy. Luckily you do not need to benefit from this gain source as far as ensure it’s not a gain drain. One method to do so is to cut out the middleman by placing your bets in a market such as Betfair where you can actually function as a price-maker rather than a price-taker. Because it’s an exchange, you can’t always get paid to put on the stakes you desire, but occasionally you can, and you definitely pay less play than you would if you moved to a traditional bookie. You might also reduce the vig by shopping around and gambling with the best priced bookie, instead of going to the same spot for all your stakes.
There are several other things also, but these are the key things you need to deal with. So the bookie makes money by incorporating the gains from knowing the odds better to the profits from being paid the vig. The way you’re going to make money is by making certain the losses from paying the vig are less than the profits from realizing the odds better. It’s just maths.
You have an edge over the bookies that will assist you. That’s the advantage of not having to bet. Bookies are anticipated to make markets on a whole host of sporting events, and honour those prices if someone tries to wager on them. You don’t have to do that. You can concentrate on the stuff which you are able to understand better, that you’ve got great data on, that you’ve got versions that offer good chances estimates on. You can sit and await the occasions the bookies get it wrong, because one of all of the noise they do make it wrong sometimes. You wait, and you wait, and you wait as long as you need to wait. Then you bet. And you also do so together with all the odds in your favor and vig removed as far as possible.
If you do this, then you are taking advantage of the same things that the bookie uses to win consistently. And as we all know,”the house always wins”.
Does this seem like a lot of effort? Maybe, right? It is not straightforward. It’s not quick. It is not a get-rich-quick strategy. * However, this is surely a way to win consistently at sports gambling.
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